How unions are flexing their power in the 2024 presidential election
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In September, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters shocked the political world when it decided not to endorse either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Having the support of a union can make a significant difference in close elections.
Though union members are a small slice of the total electorate, they can help make or break a campaign in swing states. Union workers make up 1 in 5 voters in three battleground states, according to the AFL-CIO, the largest federation of labor groups in the U.S.
Historically, labor unions have been allies with Democratic politicians. For the past two decades, the Teamsters have supported every major Democratic presidential candidate.
Which candidates have the Teamsters endorsed – or skipped?
Although the Teamsters did not endorse Harris, the United Auto Workers, the United Steelworkers and the AFL-CIO have endorsed the Democrat nominee.
The Teamsters represent more than 1 million truck drivers, warehouse workers, police officers and others. The AFL-CIO represents nearly 13 million workers in their federation of 60 unions.
Majority of labor union members align with the Democratic Party
In the 2020 presidential election, 60% of voters represented by a union cast their ballot for Biden, according to research from the Center for American Progress.
The report found that working-class union voters were more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in 2020 and 2022 than in 2016 and 2018.
A recent survey from the Pew Research Center found that about half of union voters would support Harris if the election were held today. And 43% said they would support Trump. Another 6% said they would support a third-party candidate.
Paul Clark, professor of labor and employment relations at Penn State University told Penn State News that “unions and union members will play a critical role in the 2024 election.” In the previous two presidential elections, Trump was able to draw in working-class votes, including union members.
“While almost 60% of union members and their families voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2012, that number fell to 51% in 2016, enough to secure Trump’s election,” Clark said.
Three of the seven swing states have higher union densities compared with the rest of the nation, the Center for American Progress reports. In Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, at least 12% of workers are union members. Biden won by a margin of less than 3% in these three swing states.
How many people belong to unions?
Nearly a quarter of the workforce belonged to a union 40 years ago. Now that number is just over 10%.
Though worker stoppages have kept up, labor union rates have steadily declined for decades. From 1983 to 2022, union membership fell by half, from 20.1% to 10.1%.
“Union density reached a high of over 30% in the post-World War II decades in the 1950s and 1960s,” said Kent Wong, Project Director for Labor and Community Partnerships at the UCLA Labor Center.
Labor laws in the U.S. make it more difficult for employees to form unions: More than two dozen states have passed “right to work” laws, which make it more difficult for workers to unionize. These laws provide union representation to non-union members in union workplaces – without requiring the payment of union dues. It also gives workers the option to join a union or opt out
Nearly 35% of workers in protective service occupations were represented by a union. That includes correction officers, police, firefighters and security guards. They had the highest unionization rates of any workforce. Education, training and library occupations followed at 33.7%, according to the labor statistics bureau.
Contributing: Karissa Waddick and Rebecca Morin
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